According to Global Risks Report 2021, global threats expected to occur within 2 years include mainly unemployment and livelihood crisis, global youth disillusionment, digital inequality and economic slowdown

The results of the Global Risks Report 2021 prepared with the cooperation of the Turkish Industry and Business Association (TÜSİAD), Marsh Turkey, and Zurich Sigorta were announced in an online meeting.

Barış Oran, a member of the Board of Directors of TÜSİAD, gave a speech in the meeting and stated that digital transformation has affected many areas such as business, communication, shopping, education, and said that they give a lot of importance to managing this process effectively and to the steps to be taken in this area.

Oran stated that this transformation brings new risks as well as advantages and mentioned the inequalities in accessing digitalization and technology.

Oran said that “Just like we see in the unequal distribution of vaccination, it brings about some common costs. It is a significant risk that increased inequality in this area increases the social fragility and weakens the inclusive recovery possibility. These risks which may be caused by inequalities, mainly education, should be managed in a correct way for the public welfare.”
Oran stated that the report highlights the risks arising out of Covid-19 and underlined the negative effects of the pandemics on the achievements obtained in the last 10 years.

The crisis in weather conditions to increase within 10 years

According to the given information, in the Global Risks Report published this year by World Economic Forum, risks caused by Covid-19 pandemics are evaluated along with the other risks obtained from the results of the Global Risks Perception Survey.
The report also includes proposals for enhancing resilience, drawing from the lessons of the pandemic as well as historical risk analysis.

In the report in which risks related to extreme weather, digital inequality and cybersecurity attract attention, the possible oppression of healthcare, economic and technological inequalities on social stability, and rising generation are highlighted. The importance of global cooperation is also emphasized for the inevitable results of climate change.

While the latest results of the Global Risk Perception Survey are published in Global Risks Report 2021, it also includes the results of the latest Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), followed by an analysis of growing social, economic, and industrial divisions, their interconnections, and their implications on our ability to resolve major global risks requiring societal cohesion and global cooperation.  The report includes proposals for enhancing resilience, drawing from the lessons of the pandemic as well as historical risk analysis.
According to the report, among the highest likelihood risks of the next ten years are extreme weather, climate action failure, and human-led environmental damage; as well as digital power concentration, digital inequality, and cybersecurity failure. Among the highest impact risks of the next decade, infectious diseases are in the top spot, followed by climate action failure and other environmental risks. Besides this, there are also weapons of mass destruction, livelihood crisis, debt crisis, and IT infrastructure breakdown.

Unemployment and livelihood crisis will be critical threats

When it comes to the time horizon within which these risks will become a critical threat to the world, the most imminent threats – those that are most likely in the next two years – include employment and livelihood crises, widespread youth disillusionment, digital inequality, economic stagnation, human-made environmental damage, erosion of societal cohesion, and terrorist attacks.

Economic risks feature prominently in the 3-5 year timeframe, including asset bubbles, price instability, commodity shocks, and debt crises. This is followed by geopolitical risks, including interstate relations and conflict. In the 5-10 year horizon, environmental risks such as biodiversity loss, natural resource crises, and climate action failure dominate; alongside weapons of mass destruction, adverse effects of technology, and collapse of states or multilateral institutions.

Economic fragility and societal divisions are set to increase

According to the report, underlying disparities in healthcare, education, financial stability, and technology have led the crisis to disproportionately impact certain groups and countries. Not only has COVID-19 caused more than two million deaths at the time of writing, but the economic and long-term health impacts will continue to have devastating consequences.
The pandemic’s economic shockwave will immediately increase inequality, but so can an uneven recovery.  Working hours equivalent to 495 million jobs were lost in the second quarter of 2020 alone. Only 28 economies are expected to have grown in 2020.

Nearly 60% of respondents to the GRPS identified “infectious diseases” and “livelihood crises” as the top short-term threats to the world.

While the economies are getting rid of the shock and warning of the pandemics, companies face a shock. The slowdown in developed economies, the potential loss in the developed and developing markets, collapse of the small-scale companies, the increased gap between the large- and small-scale companies, decreased market dynamism, and increased inequality makes it difficult to achieve sustainable development targets.

Despite all of these, there are opportunities to invest in smart, clean, and inclusive growth, which will productivity and sustainability for the states and companies seeing a changing work environment.

The digital gap causes fears, young people experience disillusionment

COVID-19 has accelerated the Fourth Industrial Revolution, expanding the digitalization of human interaction, e-commerce, online education, and remote work. These shifts will transform society long after the pandemic and promise huge benefits such as the ability to telework and rapid vaccine development.

But they also risk exacerbating and creating inequalities. Respondents to the GRPS rated “digital inequality” as a critical short-term threat.

While the digital leap forward unlocked opportunities for some youth, many are still have unemployment problems. Young adults worldwide are experiencing their second major global crisis in a decade. Already exposed to environmental degradation, the consequences of the financial crisis, rising inequality, and disruption from industrial transformation, this generation faces serious challenges to their education, economic prospects, and mental health...
According to Global Risk Perception Survey, the risk of “youth disillusionment” is being largely neglected by the global community, but it will become a critical threat to the world in the short term Hard-fought societal wins could be obliterated if the current generation lacks adequate pathways to future opportunities—and loses faith in today’s economic and political institutions.

Climate continues to be a looming risk as global cooperation weakens

Climate change continues to be a catastrophic risk. Although lockdowns worldwide caused global emissions to fall in the first half of 2020, evidence from the previous years warns that emissions could bounce back. A shift towards greener economies cannot be delayed until the shocks of the pandemic subside.

Responses to the pandemic have caused new domestic and geopolitical tensions that threaten stability. Digital division and a future “lost generation” are likely to test social cohesion from within borders. GRPS respondents rated “state collapse” and “multilateralism collapse” as critical long-term threats.

GRPS respondents signal a challenging geopolitical outlook marked by “interstate relations fracture”, “interstate conflict” and “resource geopolitization”—all forecasted as critical threats to the world in three to five years.

Better pathways are available to manage risks and enhance resilience

Despite some remarkable examples of determination, cooperation, and innovation, most countries have struggled with aspects of crisis management during the global pandemic. While it is early to draw definitive lessons, Global Risks Report reflects on global preparedness by looking at four key areas of the response to COVID-19. These areas are “institutional authority”, “risk financing”, “information collection and sharing”, and “equipment and vaccines”.

According to the report, if lessons from this crisis only inform decision-makers how to better prepare for the next pandemic—rather than enhancing risk processes, capabilities and culture—the world will be again planning for the last crisis rather than anticipating the next.
The response to pandemic offers four governance opportunities to strengthen the overall resilience of countries, businesses, and the international community These opportunities include “formulating analytical frameworks that take a holistic and systems-based view of risk impacts”, “investing in high-profile risk champions to encourage national leadership and international co-operation”, “improving risk communications and combating misinformation” and “exploring new forms of public-private partnership on risk preparedness”.