Page 14 - Turkinsurance Digital Magazine

14 cover story

GLOBAL AVERAGE MEDICAL TRENDS BY COUNTRY,
2019 - 2021

Net cost trend (of general inflation) 2019 Net cost trend (of general inflation) 2020
Net cost trend (of general inflation) 2021

MIDDL E EAST /AFRICA 7,39 6,94 6,98
EUROPE 4,02 3,27 4,15

AS IA PACIF IC 5,88 5,10 6,78
NOR T H AME R IC A 3,65 2,15 5,50

L AT IN AMERICA 5,75 6,62 11,17
GL OBAL 5,13 4,60 6,17

treatment, potentially leading to worsening health conditions and on coverage. This is expected to impact the cost of treatment in the
some unexpected cost increases coming through, such as those for future; however, it will probably take a while for the initiative to be
personal protective equipment. fully implemented given the variation in government funding at the
provincial level.
High expectations for the trend to spring
back Projected jumps in trends for Asia Pacific
countries

According to the report’s region-based analysis, Asia Pacific region Hong-Kong results indicate that the low utilization of medical ser-
shows a significant drop in trend to 6.2% in 2020, but this will vices during the pandemic and the recession forecasted by the gov-
spring back above the 2019 trend to a projected 8.5% in 2021.
ernment are the two main drivers of the slowdown in medical trend
for 2020 and 2021. Demand for medical tourism from mainland
Medical trend in Europe is seen to have decreased to 4.2% for China has also dropped due to the travel restrictions and social
2020, but a rebound is expected in 2021 to a trend rate close to unrest in Hong Kong.
the 2019 level of 5.8%.
India has not seen the same reduction in trend as other countries
Latin America has the highest medical trend numbers for 2020 and have for 2020. While utilization decreased during part of the year
2021. Even excluding the environment of hyperinflation in Ven- (April to July), India is currently in a situation with low claim fre-
ezuela, we see projected trend numbers of 9.0% for 2020 and a quency and average cost of procedures increasing. The government
large jump to 13.6% in 2021.
did, however, take some small measures to issue guidelines around
pricing for COVID-19 tests and treatments, which helped with cost
Middle East and Africa was the only region in the report not to management to an extent. The year 2021 could see an increased
show a major decrease in medical trend for 2020 compared with rate of trend, higher than provisionally reported, as utilization
2019. The trend for 2020 is expected to be 8.7%, the same as for starts to return to normal levels.
2019. For 2021 we expect an increase to 10%.
The report projects that medical trend rates in Indonesia will be
The report shows that medical trend decreased significantly in the slightly lower in 2020, not only because of the impact of COVID-19
first half of 2020 in North America, and overall trend numbers on reduced elective procedures but also due to various other fac-
were lower than in previous years; however, it is expected that uti- tors, including the increased utilization of BPJS Kesehatan (uni-
lization will rebound in 2021, driving trend back up toward 2019 versal health insurance) especially for chronic/critical illnesses and
levels.
ongoing costly treatments.
Country-based results are also highly intriguing. The report states Medical trend in Malaysia is expected to continue its rise albeit at
that COVID-19 has not had as much impact on cost or utilization in a slower pace compared with previous years. For 2020, the number
China as it has in other countries. The costs of medical care contin- of doctor visits and admissions dropped significantly during March
ue to increase for treatments, particularly those outside the scope and April due to the government-imposed lockdown (MCO), which
of social security coverage. The central government is planning to has caused the overall trend to decrease. All of this means that
eliminate the individual medical account and at the same time offer there is a pause in 2020 trend compared with 2019, but an uptick
coverage for outpatient expenses under social security. The initia- is expected in Q4 2020 and in 2021 to catch up on delayed proce-
tive was announced in September 2020, with more details to come
dures.