Page 11 - Turkinsurance Digital Magazine

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Thinking Ahead
Institute reveals top

fifteen extreme risks for

investors

Global temperature change, global trade collapse
and cyber warfare dominate the top three extreme
risks that could have a significant impact on
economic growth and asset returns, should they

happen

The Thinking Ahead Institute’s (TAI) Extreme risks 2019 report and
ranking, which categorises rare events that could have a high impact on
global economic growth and asset returns, has a new top three: global
temperature change, global trade collapse and cyber warfare.

The extreme risks 2019 ranking saw global temperature change climb
to the top spot which covers scenarios where the planet becomes far
less habitable. The number two extreme risk is the potential collapse
of global trade, driven by the rise of protectionism, primarily due to
developments in global politics over the past six years. Joining in third
place is cyber warfare. As the world has become ever more connected,
the risk of the internet being weaponised has also increased.

The Thinking Ahead Institute’s top 15 extreme risks ranking for the
first time includes: biodiversity collapse, abandonment of fiat money
and cyber warfare, while those that have dropped out of the top 15
this year are: deflation, insurance crisis and terrorism. Those that have
risen up the rankings this year are infrastructure failure (+8 places), as
well as global trade collapse (+3) and currency crisis (+3). According
to the report, the extreme risks that are less of a threat than in 2013
include stagnation, which has fallen eight places, as well as resource
scarcity which lost top spot by falling three places.